No, a meteor will not hit Earth in 2036. Specifically, the asteroid Apophis, which was once a point of concern for a potential impact around that time, has been definitively ruled out.
Will a Meteor Hit Earth in 2036?
While the possibility of an asteroid or meteor impacting Earth is a subject of ongoing scientific monitoring, a significant celestial body known as Apophis has been confirmed to pose no threat in 2036. Initial observations had raised some concerns about its trajectory, but subsequent, more precise measurements have entirely dismissed the possibility of an impact for that year and beyond.
The Trajectory of Asteroid Apophis
Asteroid Apophis, a near-Earth object, garnered considerable attention due to its close approaches to our planet. However, scientific observations have provided clear answers regarding its future trajectory:
- 2029 Flyby: Apophis will make a very close but harmless approach to Earth in 2029. This event will be a remarkable opportunity for scientists to study an asteroid up close.
- 2036 Scenario: Previously, there was a very remote chance of an impact in 2036. However, detailed radar observations conducted during the asteroid's flyby in March 2021 provided highly accurate data. These observations definitively ruled out any impact with Earth in 2036.
- Long-Term Safety: Furthermore, these advanced measurements have ruled out an impact for at least the next 100 years, providing a clear outlook on Apophis's harmless path.
Why the Initial Concern?
When asteroids are first discovered, their orbits are calculated based on limited data, which can lead to a wide range of possible trajectories, sometimes including potential collision paths. As more observations are gathered over time, especially during close approaches, scientists can refine these orbital calculations with much greater precision. This refinement process often eliminates previously calculated, but improbable, impact scenarios, as was the case with Apophis for 2036.
Key Dates for Apophis and Earth
| Event | Date | Impact Probability for Earth |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Close Approach | 2029 | Will miss |
| Previously Considered Close Approach | 2036 | Will definitely miss |
| Long-Term Outlook (from 2021 onwards) | Next 100+ years | Impact ruled out |
In summary, the scientific community has confidently determined that Apophis, or any other known meteor or asteroid, will not hit Earth in 2036. Ongoing efforts to track near-Earth objects continue to ensure our planet's safety from potential cosmic collisions.
