In 2050, particularly under scenarios of a progressively worsening climate, some of the most climate-resilient and safest places to live in the United States are projected to be specific counties predominantly in the Western U.S., including parts of New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Washington. These areas are identified based on factors that mitigate risks from various natural disasters.
Top Climate-Resilient Counties for 2050
A recent analysis evaluating climate resilience and natural disaster risk, specifically under a high-emissions climate scenario (Scenario 8.5), identifies the following counties as offering significant safety from natural disasters by 2050:
Rank | County | State |
---|---|---|
1 | McKinley County | New Mexico |
2 | Conejos County | Colorado |
3 | Summit County | Colorado |
4 | Duchesne County | Utah |
5 | Saguache County | Colorado |
6 | Spokane County | Washington |
7 | Emery County | Utah |
8 | Eagle County | Colorado |
These locations are highlighted for their comparative advantage in mitigating climate-related hazards, making them more resilient against future environmental shifts.
Factors Contributing to Climate Resilience
The designation of these counties as "safest" for 2050 is based on a comprehensive assessment of various climate-related risks. Key factors that contribute to the resilience of these areas often include:
- Geographic Diversity: Many of these counties are inland, often at higher elevations, which reduces exposure to sea-level rise, coastal storms, and powerful hurricanes.
- Water Availability: While water scarcity is a growing concern, these areas may have more reliable access to water sources or are less dependent on vulnerable systems compared to others.
- Reduced Risk of Specific Disasters: They typically face lower direct risks from:
- Extreme Heat: While not immune, their elevation or specific microclimates may offer some buffer.
- Wildfires: Geographic features, vegetation types, and land management practices can influence wildfire risk, though some Western states are increasingly vulnerable.
- Flooding: Inland locations may have lower risks of widespread riverine or flash flooding compared to areas near major floodplains or coastlines.
- Drought: Their specific hydrologic basins or proximity to mountain snowpack may offer more consistent water supplies.
- Infrastructure and Economic Stability: While not explicitly detailed for each county in terms of "safest," regions with robust infrastructure and diverse economies are generally better equipped to adapt to and recover from climate impacts.
Understanding these factors is crucial for long-term planning, as climate resilience becomes an increasingly significant consideration for habitation and development.