The highest risk country, as assessed for 2023-24, is Chad.
Chad holds the #1 country rank due to a significant estimated risk of mass killings. Its statistical model estimates a 12.3%, or approximately 1 in 8, chance of a new mass killing beginning in Chad in 2024 or 2025.
Understanding Country Risk Assessments
These risk assessments are typically conducted by organizations that monitor potential conflicts and atrocities worldwide. They use various indicators, including political instability, existing conflicts, human rights records, and socio-economic factors, to predict where new instances of mass violence are most likely to occur. The ranking reflects a comprehensive analysis of these factors, providing an early warning for potential crises.
Top-Ranked Countries by Risk (2023-24)
Based on recent assessments, several countries are identified as having the highest risk of new mass killings. These rankings highlight areas requiring urgent attention and preventative measures.
| Rank | Country | Details |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chad | Highest-risk country. An estimated 12.3%, or approximately 1 in 8, chance of a new mass killing beginning in 2024 or 2025. |
| 2 | Sudan | Ranks second globally, also facing a very high risk of mass killings, reflecting ongoing instability and conflict. |
| 3 | Burma/Myanmar | Holds the third position, indicating continued concerns about mass atrocities, particularly given its history of violence against ethnic minorities. |
Note: These rankings are based on specific models and data from 2023-24, focusing on the risk of new mass killings.
Why is this assessment important?
Identifying high-risk countries is crucial for:
- Early Warning Systems: It allows international bodies, governments, and humanitarian organizations to anticipate crises.
- Preventative Action: It prompts efforts to de-escalate tensions, provide aid, and support peacebuilding initiatives before violence erupts.
- Resource Allocation: It helps direct resources to where they are most needed to protect vulnerable populations.
Understanding these risk assessments provides insight into global hotspots and the ongoing challenges in preventing atrocities and ensuring human security. For more detailed information on country risks and their methodologies, you can explore resources like the Early Warning Project.
