The exact chance of obtaining the Mitten glove is 1 in 200.
This probability is derived from a combination of the glove's inherent rarity and an overarching game mechanic involving present types. While the Mitten glove has a base rarity of 1 in 100, its effective chance is influenced by a prior probabilistic event.
Understanding Mitten Glove's Rarity
To fully understand the 1 in 200 probability, consider the contributing factors:
- Base Glove Rarity: The Mitten glove itself possesses a base rarity of 1 in 100. This means that if it were the only factor, you would expect to see it once every 100 attempts.
- Present Type Probability: Before a specific glove's rarity is considered, players encounter a 50/50 chance of receiving either a "good" present or a "bad" present. The Mitten glove is tied to one of these outcomes (likely the "good" present, based on how its overall rarity is calculated).
When these two probabilities are combined, the calculation is essentially (1/100 chance for Mitten) multiplied by (1/2 chance for the correct present type), resulting in an effective 1 in 200 probability.
Probability Breakdown
The following table illustrates how these probabilities combine:
| Glove | Base Chance | Present Type Probability | Effective Overall Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitten | 1/100 | 1/2 (50/50) | 1/200 |
| Snowball | 1/200 | 1/2 (50/50) | 1/400 |
As seen with the Snowball glove, a similar principle applies, where its base chance of 1 in 200 combines with the 50/50 present mechanic to result in an overall 1 in 400 chance. This consistent mechanism highlights how different layers of probability can influence the final acquisition rate of rare items.
