The probability of getting an H-1B visa varies significantly each year due to a highly competitive lottery system, driven by the fluctuating number of applications received against a fixed annual cap. There isn't a single, constant probability; rather, the selection rate changes based on demand.
Understanding the H-1B Visa Lottery
The H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa that allows U.S. employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations. Due to high demand, the number of H-1B petitions often exceeds the annual cap set by Congress. When this occurs, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) conducts a random selection process, commonly known as the H-1B lottery, to select eligible registrations.
Historical H-1B Selection Rates
The selection rate for the H-1B visa has seen considerable fluctuation in recent years, reflecting the intense demand and varying number of submissions. Here's a look at the probabilities (selection rates) from recent lottery seasons:
| Fiscal Year | Selection Rate |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 46.17% |
| 2022 | 43.76% |
| 2023 | 26.89% |
| 2024 | 24.82% |
As the table illustrates, the probability of selection significantly decreased from over 40% in 2021 and 2022 to below 30% in 2023 and further down in 2024. This decline is largely attributed to a substantial surge in applications, particularly in 2023, indicating a much higher level of competition for the available visas.
Factors Influencing H-1B Odds
Several key factors determine the H-1B lottery odds each year:
- Number of Registrations: The most significant factor is the total number of eligible H-1B registrations submitted to USCIS. A higher volume of registrations translates directly to lower selection odds, as more individuals compete for the same number of visas.
- Annual Cap: Congress sets an annual cap on the number of H-1B visas issued. Typically, 65,000 visas are available under the regular cap, with an additional 20,000 set aside for beneficiaries who hold a U.S. master's degree or higher from a U.S. institution.
- Exemptions: Certain types of employers, such as universities, non-profit research organizations, and government research organizations, are exempt from the annual H-1B cap. Petitions filed by these entities do not compete in the lottery, which can indirectly impact the odds for cap-subject petitions.
The H-1B lottery remains a highly competitive process, and the odds of selection are subject to change based on the annual influx of applications.
Learn more about the H-1B visa program from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).
