Future myopia refers to the high likelihood or prediction that a child will develop myopia (nearsightedness) in the future, based on specific ocular measurements and risk factors identified through clinical assessment. It indicates a significant risk of progression towards nearsightedness.
Understanding the Prediction of Future Myopia
Identifying future myopia is crucial for early intervention strategies aimed at slowing its progression. The prediction is based on specific physiological markers and changes observed in a child's eyes over time.
Key Indicators for Predicting Future Myopia
Several key indicators help clinicians assess the risk of future myopia development. These indicators vary based on the child's age and observed changes over time.
For Children Aged 6-7 Years
In children aged 6 to 7 years, specific measurements are strong predictors of future myopia:
| Indicator | Criterion | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Spherical Equivalent Refraction (SER) | +0.63 Diopters (D) or less | The SER is a measure of the eye's refractive power. A lower positive (or more negative) SER indicates a higher risk of myopia. |
| Axial Length (AL) | 23.07 mm or longer | Axial length is the measurement of the eye from front to back. A longer eye is characteristic of myopia. |
| Axial Length (AL) Change | Increasing across centiles | Consistent growth in axial length that surpasses typical development for age, indicating rapid eye elongation. |
Myopic Shift Over Time (Regardless of Age)
Over a period of three years, significant changes in eye measurements, regardless of a child's initial age, strongly suggest the future development of myopia:
- Myopic Shift: A change in Spherical Equivalent Refraction (SER) of at least -0.85 Diopters (D). This indicates the eye is becoming more nearsighted.
- Axial Length Increase: An increase in Axial Length (AL) of at least 0.74 mm. This signifies that the eye is growing longer than it should be, which is a hallmark of myopia.
Genetic Predisposition
Beyond ocular measurements, genetic factors also play a significant role in predicting future myopia:
- Parental Myopia: Having at least one myopic parent substantially increases a child's risk of developing myopia.
These criteria, established as of August 8, 2022, provide a robust framework for identifying children at risk for future myopia development, enabling timely management and potential treatment.
