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Who is most likely to be the next pope?

Published in Papal Succession 2 mins read

While the selection of a new pope is a complex process known as a papal conclave, certain cardinals are consistently recognized as potential candidates, referred to as papabili. These individuals are often considered due to their theological background, administrative experience, and perceived ability to lead the Catholic Church.

Understanding Papabili

The term papabile (Italian for "pope-able") denotes cardinals who are widely discussed and considered by observers as potential successors to the reigning pontiff. These cardinals are often seen as having the qualities and influence necessary to garner sufficient votes from their fellow cardinals during a conclave.

Potential Candidates for the Next Papacy

Based on assessments of potential candidates for a future conclave, several cardinals have been identified as papabili. It is important to note that the ultimate choice rests with the College of Cardinals, and outcomes can be unpredictable.

Here are some of the cardinals who have been noted as papabili:

Country Name Notes
United States Raymond Leo Burke
Czech Republic Dominik Duka Will not be part of a future conclave. If elected, would be the oldest pope since before Clement X in 1670.
Netherlands Willem Eijk
Hungary Péter Erdő Also considered papabile in 2013.

It is notable that Dominik Duka, despite being mentioned as papabile, has a specific note indicating he "will not be part of a future conclave," which significantly impacts his likelihood of being elected. Raymond Leo Burke, Willem Eijk, and Péter Erdő are presented without such disqualifying notes, placing them among the considered potential candidates for election. Péter Erdő's consistent mention as papabile since 2013 highlights his long-standing recognition as a potential successor.

The selection of a new pope involves cardinals under the age of 80 gathering in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel to cast their votes. The process is shrouded in secrecy, aiming for a candidate who can unite the diverse global Catholic community and provide strong spiritual leadership.