How often do Super Bowl favorites win?

Super Bowl favorites win approximately 63.2% of the time outright, holding an impressive straight-up (SU) record of 36 wins and 21 losses.

While favorites have a strong record of winning the game, their performance against the spread (ATS) tells a different story, and underdogs have often proven to be a savvy bet for those looking to cover.

Super Bowl Favorites: A Closer Look at Their Record

When it comes to simply winning the game, favorites have historically performed well. Out of 57 Super Bowls, the favored team has emerged victorious in 36 contests, losing 21 times. This translates to a win rate of just over 63%. This indicates that more often than not, the team expected to win does indeed claim the Lombardi Trophy.

Favorites Against the Spread (ATS)

Betting on favorites to win straight up is one thing, but betting on them to cover the point spread is another challenge entirely. The favored team's record against the spread is less dominant:

• Favorites ATS Record: 29 wins, 26 losses, 2 pushes

This means that while favorites often win, they don't always win by the margin projected by oddsmakers. This nuance is crucial for bettors, as a win is not always a "covering" win.

The Underdog Factor in Recent Super Bowls

Despite the overall success of favorites winning straight up, underdogs have made a significant mark, particularly in recent Super Bowls. Betting on the underdog, especially against the spread, has frequently paid off.

• Underdogs covering the spread: In 15 of the last 23 Super Bowls, the underdog has successfully covered the spread.

A notable example occurred recently when Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a slight upset over the Philadelphia Eagles, covering the spread and winning the Super Bowl despite being the underdog. This trend highlights the competitive nature of the Super Bowl and the tendency for closely matched teams, or strong underdog performances, to defy expectations set by the betting lines.

Summary of Super Bowl Outcomes

Here's a breakdown of how favorites have performed in the Super Bowl:

This data shows that while favorites are strong contenders for winning the Super Bowl outright, the games are often closer than the initial betting lines suggest, making the underdog a compelling option for spread betting.